23/02/2012 10:23:44

The US Grains Council, whose role is to promote the country's grain exports, warned of "rapidly changing market realities" which were eroding US pre-eminence in agricultural commodity shipments.

The group focused on corn, in which the US is, for the first time in 2011-12, to account for less than 50% of world shipments, thanks to the emergence of Ukraine as a major exporter.

America's exports will ease to 43.2m tonnes, or 46% of the world total, down from 52% last season, on US Department of Agriculture exports.

However, the US is also to be overtaken by Brazil as a soybean exporter, and in wheat is seeing its lead in shipments eroded by Australia and Russia.

'Crisis of competitiveness'

"US producers face a crisis of competitiveness," the council said, noting an "intense battle" for share in export markets.

"Aggressive competitors in Argentina, Brazil and the Black Sea region… are ramping up production in response to high global prices for corn and other feed grains."

US producers "can hardly fault others for competing effectively for market share because, in large part, we taught them how to do it", the group said.

"But rising competition means US producers must look aggressively to emerging markets in which the US can earn a competitive edge."

Foreign threats

The comments follow forecasts last week from the USDA that the US was over the next decade to continue to lose market share in exports of major crops including corn, soybeans and wheat and, to a lesser extent, cotton and sorghum.

In wheat, US shipments will represent 16% of the world total in 2021, down from an average of 23% over the past five years, the last decade, mainly due to increased shipments from the Black Sea.

The USGC highlighted that in corn, "the US cannot take market dominance for granted", noting "increasing self-sufficiency" in the rest of the world.

"Non-US demand continues to rise rapidly, prices remain high, and non-US producers are responding."

Quality doubts

However, it also flagged the dent to demand for US shipments stoked by the poor-quality crop in 2009, when wet conditions delayed the harvest for weeks, leaving crop exposed to poor weather.

The council had logged "concerns" about US corn quality "in virtually every market around the world", with longer-standing complaints too about moisture content.

In the US too, corn buyers such as Smithfield Foods, the hog producer, complained over the quality of the 2009 harvest, in which moisture levels often came in at 20-30%, creating ripe conditions for the spread of fungi, including those which produce vomitoxin.

Fonte: agrimoney.com


Guilherme Viana (MTb / MG 06566 JP)
Jornalista da Embrapa Milho e Sorgo
Tels: (31) 3027-1272 / (31) 9733-4373
gfviana@cnpms.embrapa.br